Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 21.310677 25.595255 30.303335 35.832457 42.118663 49.014118 57.119659
2025-08-31 14.275030 19.671321 26.219526 34.626556 45.001674 57.252065 72.665558
2025-09-07 11.032585 16.951941 24.705181 35.333926 49.232436 66.485679 89.187198
2025-09-14 8.410469 14.313843 22.606720 34.652699 51.202977 72.620781 101.843743
2025-09-21 6.951596 12.940848 21.874825 35.490998 54.961115 80.998774 117.538194
2025-09-28 5.241549 10.790170 19.630086 33.809621 54.943072 84.164062 126.338825
2025-10-05 4.524996 10.098351 19.448761 35.044159 59.017866 92.986661 143.018721
2025-10-12 3.872166 9.370289 19.075569 35.880969 62.478331 101.029678 158.877663
2025-10-19 3.306213 8.675904 18.639164 36.522111 65.611590 108.672685 174.401042
2025-10-26 2.874527 8.150627 18.408885 37.437949 69.166821 117.024429 191.183001
2025-11-02 2.349995 7.297970 17.449886 36.992415 70.480875 122.037921 203.241343
2025-11-09 1.984270 6.711688 16.902295 37.182726 72.784998 128.584251 217.714981
2025-11-16 1.612618 6.040844 16.153208 37.056036 74.758270 135.029965 232.804071
2025-11-23 1.222885 5.190540 14.894400 35.853434 74.838068 138.557360 243.711313
2025-11-30 1.033970 4.843467 14.663814 36.582721 78.284820 147.551452 263.277506
2025-12-07 0.800362 4.256767 13.773127 35.882914 79.105951 152.283756 276.331395
2025-12-14 0.682809 4.013471 13.657093 36.744288 82.788474 161.833755 297.238625
2025-12-21 0.486638 3.366327 12.391851 35.016529 81.518831 163.023440 304.822123
2025-12-28 0.426939 3.248888 12.499338 36.285173 85.982578 174.065447 328.583573
2026-01-04 0.363538 3.079611 12.431408 37.144948 89.689419 183.922670 350.674124
2026-01-11 0.304683 2.895702 12.285478 37.803606 93.023732 193.232838 372.103499
2026-01-18 0.260627 2.761906 12.263027 38.744346 96.957554 203.710059 395.722473
2026-01-25 0.198898 2.470067 11.687054 38.286715 98.025706 209.135251 411.045059